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Smolensk vs Baltika BFU — Second League - Group 2 2020

Smolensk
Smolensk
CANC
00:00
Baltika BFU
Baltika BFU
9/4/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Smolensk35%
×Draw28%
Baltika BFU37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Smolensk
1.15
Baltika BFU
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 53 away

creates per match

Smolensk
0.88
Baltika BFU
1.25

allows per match

Smolensk
1.18
Baltika BFU
1.42

finishing

Smolensk+0.00on par
Baltika BFU+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Smolensk ↓

Baltika BFU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Smolensk or draw
63%
Smolensk or Baltika BFU
72%
Draw or Baltika BFU
65%

Winning margin

Smolensk wins by 2+
14%
Baltika BFU wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Smolensk 1+ goals
68%
Smolensk 2+ goals
32%
Smolensk 3+ goals
11%
Baltika BFU 1+ goals
70%
Baltika BFU 2+ goals
34%
Baltika BFU 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Smolensk (draw refunded)
48%
Baltika BFU (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Smolensk at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Baltika BFU away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Smolensk attack 0.88 + Baltika BFU defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.15

Baltika BFU attack 1.25 + Smolensk defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Smolensk scores more
35%
level
28%
Baltika BFU scores more
37%

Baltika BFU at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Baltika BFU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Smolensk vs Baltika BFU — Match Preview

Smolensk face Baltika BFU on September 4, 2021 in this Second League - Group 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.