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Baltika BFU vs Smolensk — Second League - Group 2 2020

Baltika BFU
Baltika BFU
CANC
00:00
Smolensk
Smolensk
10/25/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Baltika BFU53%
×Draw25%
Smolensk22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baltika BFU
1.57
Smolensk
0.92

Baltika BFU creates 71% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 15 away

creates per match

Baltika BFU
1.22
Smolensk
0.73

allows per match

Baltika BFU
1.11
Smolensk
1.93

finishing

Baltika BFU+0.00on par
Smolensk+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika BFU ↓

Smolensk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Baltika BFU or draw
78%
Baltika BFU or Smolensk
75%
Draw or Smolensk
47%

Winning margin

Baltika BFU wins by 2+
27%
Smolensk wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Baltika BFU 1+ goals
79%
Baltika BFU 2+ goals
46%
Baltika BFU 3+ goals
21%
Smolensk 1+ goals
60%
Smolensk 2+ goals
23%
Smolensk 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Baltika BFU (draw refunded)
70%
Smolensk (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika BFU at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.11 · 54 matches

Smolensk away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika BFU attack 1.22 + Smolensk defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.57

Smolensk attack 0.73 + Baltika BFU defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Baltika BFU scores more
53%
level
25%
Smolensk scores more
22%

Baltika BFU at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Baltika BFU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baltika BFU vs Smolensk — Match Preview

Baltika BFU face Smolensk on October 25, 2021 in this Second League - Group 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.