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Smiltene vs New Project — 1. Liga 2026

Smiltene
Smiltene
FT
3 – 1
New Project
New Project
5/25/20191. Liga1. Liga · Round 8Tepera stadions (Smiltene)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Smiltene52%
×Draw20%
New Project28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Smiltene
2.30
New Project
1.66

Smiltene creates 39% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 14 away

creates per match

Smiltene
1.67
New Project
0.86

allows per match

Smiltene
2.46
New Project
2.93

finishing

Smiltene+0.00on par
New Project+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Smiltene ↓

New Project →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Smiltene or draw
72%
Smiltene or New Project
80%
Draw or New Project
48%

Winning margin

Smiltene wins by 2+
32%
New Project wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Smiltene 1+ goals
90%
Smiltene 2+ goals
67%
Smiltene 3+ goals
40%
New Project 1+ goals
81%
New Project 2+ goals
49%
New Project 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Smiltene (draw refunded)
65%
New Project (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Smiltene at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.46 · 82 matches

New Project away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Smiltene attack 1.67 + New Project defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.30

New Project attack 0.86 + Smiltene defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Smiltene scores more
52%
level
20%
New Project scores more
28%

Smiltene at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Smiltene will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Smiltene vs New Project

Smiltene beat New Project 3-1 in 1. Liga on May 25, 2019.

The match was played at Tepera stadions (Smiltene).