New Project 1–5 Smiltene: Result & Stats | 1. Liga

New Project

FT

1 – 5

Smiltene

8/24/2019

1. Liga · Round 17RTU stadions (Rīga (Riga))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

New Project54%

×Draw21%

Smiltene25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

New ProjectExpected goals in this matchSmiltene

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.47

New Project

2.21

Smiltene

1.47

New Project creates 50% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 88 away

1.77

creates per match

1.31

1.62

allows per match

2.65

creates per match

New Project

1.77

Smiltene

1.31

allows per match

New Project

1.62

Smiltene

2.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

New Project+0.00on par

Smiltene+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New Project ↓

Smiltene →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

New Project or draw

75%

New Project or Smiltene

79%

Draw or Smiltene

46%

Winning margin

New Project wins by 2+

33%

Smiltene wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

New Project 1+ goals

89%

New Project 2+ goals

65%

New Project 3+ goals

38%

Smiltene 1+ goals

77%

Smiltene 2+ goals

43%

Smiltene 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

New Project (draw refunded)

68%

Smiltene (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New Project at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Smiltene away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.65 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New Project attack 1.77 + Smiltene defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.21

Smiltene attack 1.31 + New Project defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

New Project scores more

54%

level

21%

Smiltene scores more

25%

New Project at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "New Project will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff