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Smiltene vs Lokomotiv Daugavpils — 1. Liga 2026

Smiltene
Smiltene
FT
1 – 6
Lokomotiv Daugavpils
Lokomotiv Daugavpils
E. Teremko 64'
D. German 90+3'
A. Jaudzems 83'
M. Andreev 79', 52', 18'
A. Yerkin 23' (pen)
7/18/20201. Liga1. Liga · Round 3Tepera stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Smiltene16%
×Draw16%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Smiltene
1.42
Lokomotiv Daugavpils
2.98

Lokomotiv Daugavpils creates 110% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 6 away

creates per match

Smiltene
1.67
Lokomotiv Daugavpils
3.50

allows per match

Smiltene
2.46
Lokomotiv Daugavpils
1.17

finishing

Smiltene+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Daugavpils+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Smiltene ↓

Lokomotiv Daugavpils →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Smiltene or draw
32%
Smiltene or Lokomotiv Daugavpils
84%
Draw or Lokomotiv Daugavpils
84%

Winning margin

Smiltene wins by 2+
7%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

Smiltene 1+ goals
76%
Smiltene 2+ goals
41%
Smiltene 3+ goals
17%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils 1+ goals
95%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils 2+ goals
79%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

Smiltene (draw refunded)
19%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Smiltene at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.46 · 82 matches

Lokomotiv Daugavpils away — creates 3.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Smiltene attack 1.67 + Lokomotiv Daugavpils defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.42

Lokomotiv Daugavpils attack 3.50 + Smiltene defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Smiltene scores more
16%
level
16%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils scores more
68%

Lokomotiv Daugavpils at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Lokomotiv Daugavpils will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
M. Andreev
23'
A. YerkinPenalty
52'
M. Andreev
64'
E. Teremko
79'
M. Andreev
83'
A. Jaudzems
90+3'
D. German

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga: Smiltene 1–6 Lokomotiv Daugavpils

Lokomotiv Daugavpils beat Smiltene 6-1 in 1. Liga on July 18, 2020.

Goals: M. Andreev (18', 52', 79'), A. Yerkin (23' pen), E. Teremko (64'), A. Jaudzems (83'), D. German (90+3').

The match was played at Tepera stadions in Smiltene.