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Lokomotiv Daugavpils vs Smiltene — 1. Liga 2026

Lokomotiv Daugavpils
Lokomotiv Daugavpils
FT
6 – 2
Smiltene
Smiltene
R. Putans 87'
A. Jaudzems 63'
D. Herman 62', 61'
D. Klimasevics 36'
A. Yerkin 14'
R. Akmins 69'
R. Rullis 33'
9/26/20201. Liga1. Liga · Round 12Stadions Celtnieks

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lokomotiv Daugavpils76%
×Draw14%
Smiltene10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Daugavpils
2.83
Smiltene
0.91

Lokomotiv Daugavpils creates 211% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 88 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Daugavpils
3.00
Smiltene
1.31

allows per match

Lokomotiv Daugavpils
0.50
Smiltene
2.65

finishing

Lokomotiv Daugavpils+0.00on par
Smiltene+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Daugavpils ↓

Smiltene →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Daugavpils or draw
90%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils or Smiltene
86%
Draw or Smiltene
24%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Daugavpils wins by 2+
56%
Smiltene wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Daugavpils 1+ goals
94%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils 2+ goals
77%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils 3+ goals
53%
Smiltene 1+ goals
60%
Smiltene 2+ goals
23%
Smiltene 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Daugavpils (draw refunded)
89%
Smiltene (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Daugavpils at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Smiltene away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.65 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Daugavpils attack 3.00 + Smiltene defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.83

Smiltene attack 1.31 + Lokomotiv Daugavpils defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Lokomotiv Daugavpils scores more
76%
level
14%
Smiltene scores more
10%

Lokomotiv Daugavpils at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Lokomotiv Daugavpils will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
A. Yerkin
33'
R. Rullis
36'
D. Klimasevics
61'
D. Herman
62'
D. Herman
63'
A. Jaudzems
69'
R. Akmins
87'
R. Putans

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Daugavpils vs Smiltene

Lokomotiv Daugavpils beat Smiltene 6-2 in 1. Liga on September 26, 2020.

Goals: A. Yerkin (14'), R. Rullis (33'), D. Klimasevics (36'), D. Herman (61', 62'), A. Jaudzems (63'), R. Akmins (69'), R. Putans (87').

The match was played at Stadions Celtnieks in Daugavpils.