Šmartno 1–2 Krško: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Šmartno

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Krško

R. Čaks 82'

R. Ćoza 49'

I. Pranjić 34' (pen)

3/21/2021

2. SNL · Round 13Štadion Šmartno ob Paki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Šmartno25%

×Draw22%

Krško53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŠmartnoExpected goals in this matchKrško

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.94

Šmartno

1.27

Krško

1.94

Krško creates 53% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 66 away

0.73

creates per match

1.05

2.82

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Šmartno

0.73

Krško

1.05

allows per match

Šmartno

2.82

Krško

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Šmartno+0.00on par

Krško+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šmartno ↓

Krško →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Šmartno or draw

47%

Šmartno or Krško

78%

Draw or Krško

75%

Winning margin

Šmartno wins by 2+

10%

Krško wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Šmartno 1+ goals

72%

Šmartno 2+ goals

36%

Šmartno 3+ goals

14%

Krško 1+ goals

86%

Krško 2+ goals

58%

Krško 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Šmartno (draw refunded)

32%

Krško (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šmartno at home — creates 0.73, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

Krško away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.80 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šmartno attack 0.73 + Krško defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.27

Krško attack 1.05 + Šmartno defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Šmartno scores more

25%

level

22%

Krško scores more

53%

Krško at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Krško will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

I. PranjićPenalty

49'

R. Ćoza

60'

H. Muzaferović← D. Kerić

60'

G. Vodeb← S. Džumhur

73'

Ž. Ribič← M. Glavaš

80'

M. Križnik← V. Zekhov

80'

82'

89'

89'

Šmartno

Krško

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: R. Smajlović

60'▲H. Muzaferović←▼D. Kerić

60'▲G. Vodeb←▼S. Džumhur

80'▲M. Križnik←▼V. Zekhov

89'▲A. Vezaj←▼L. Danijel

89'▲Ž. Sojč←▼M. Trop

Šmartno substitutes

MuzaferovićVodebKrižnikVezajSojčZabukovnikVerdev

Manager: D. Romih

73'▲Ž. Ribič←▼M. Glavaš

80'▲M. Mrvič←▼S. Lesjak

Krško substitutes

RibičMrvičRibičVrdoljakNtoyaTorraAdamić