Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Krško vs Šmartno — 2. SNL 2019

Krško
Krško
CANC
15:00
Šmartno
Šmartno
5/9/20212. SNL2. SNL · Round 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Krško39%
×Draw25%
Šmartno37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krško
1.50
Šmartno
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 11 away

creates per match

Krško
1.18
Šmartno
1.09

allows per match

Krško
1.82
Šmartno
1.82

finishing

Krško+0.00on par
Šmartno+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krško ↓

Šmartno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Krško or draw
63%
Krško or Šmartno
75%
Draw or Šmartno
61%

Winning margin

Krško wins by 2+
19%
Šmartno wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Krško 1+ goals
78%
Krško 2+ goals
44%
Krško 3+ goals
19%
Šmartno 1+ goals
77%
Šmartno 2+ goals
43%
Šmartno 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Krško (draw refunded)
51%
Šmartno (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krško at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.82 · 65 matches

Šmartno away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krško attack 1.18 + Šmartno defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.50

Šmartno attack 1.09 + Krško defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Krško scores more
39%
level
25%
Šmartno scores more
37%

Krško at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Krško will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Krško host Šmartno

May 9, 2021: Krško take on Šmartno in 2. SNL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.