Šmartno 0–3 Fužinar: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Šmartno

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Fužinar

S. Čoralič 89'

J. Driessen 85'

T. Trdina 80'

9/27/2020

2. SNL · Round 9Štadion Šmartno ob Paki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Šmartno23%

×Draw21%

Fužinar56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŠmartnoExpected goals in this matchFužinar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

2.09

Šmartno

1.28

Fužinar

2.09

Fužinar creates 63% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 64 away

0.73

creates per match

1.36

2.82

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Šmartno

0.73

Fužinar

1.36

allows per match

Šmartno

2.82

Fužinar

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Šmartno+0.00on par

Fužinar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šmartno ↓

Fužinar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Šmartno or draw

44%

Šmartno or Fužinar

79%

Draw or Fužinar

77%

Winning margin

Šmartno wins by 2+

9%

Fužinar wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Šmartno 1+ goals

72%

Šmartno 2+ goals

37%

Šmartno 3+ goals

14%

Fužinar 1+ goals

88%

Fužinar 2+ goals

62%

Fužinar 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Šmartno (draw refunded)

29%

Fužinar (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šmartno at home — creates 0.73, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

Fužinar away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.83 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šmartno attack 0.73 + Fužinar defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.28

Fužinar attack 1.36 + Šmartno defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Šmartno scores more

23%

level

21%

Fužinar scores more

56%

Fužinar at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Fužinar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

65'

T. Trdina← Ž. Florjanc

75'

D. Trap← R. Čaks

75'

S. Čoralič← N. Fasvald

80'

T. Trdina

82'

H. Muzaferović← S. Džumhur

85'

J. Driessen

86'

D. Kerić← M. Purnat

86'

N. Vuksanović← E. Horvat

89'

S. Čoralič

Šmartno

Fužinar

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: R. Smajlović

75'▲D. Trap←▼R. Čaks

82'▲H. Muzaferović←▼S. Džumhur

86'▲D. Kerić←▼M. Purnat

Šmartno substitutes

TrapMuzaferovićKerićKacZabukovnikGrabar

Manager: D. Previšič

65'▲T. Trdina←▼Ž. Florjanc

75'▲S. Čoralič←▼N. Fasvald

86'▲N. Vuksanović←▼E. Horvat

Fužinar substitutes

TrdinaČoraličVuksanovićSoldoTuričnikJaukJezernik