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Fužinar vs Šmartno — 3. SNL - East 2020

Fužinar
Fužinar
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Šmartno
Šmartno
10/24/20253. SNL - East3. SNL - East · East - 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Fužinar57%
×Draw20%
Šmartno24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fužinar
2.38
Šmartno
1.49

Fužinar creates 60% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Fužinar
2.77
Šmartno
1.67

allows per match

Fužinar
1.31
Šmartno
2.00

finishing

Fužinar+0.00on par
Šmartno+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fužinar ↓

Šmartno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Fužinar or draw
76%
Fužinar or Šmartno
80%
Draw or Šmartno
43%

Winning margin

Fužinar wins by 2+
36%
Šmartno wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fužinar 1+ goals
91%
Fužinar 2+ goals
68%
Fužinar 3+ goals
42%
Šmartno 1+ goals
77%
Šmartno 2+ goals
44%
Šmartno 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Fužinar (draw refunded)
71%
Šmartno (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fužinar at home — creates 2.77, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Šmartno away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fužinar attack 2.77 + Šmartno defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.38

Šmartno attack 1.67 + Fužinar defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Fužinar scores more
57%
level
20%
Šmartno scores more
24%

Fužinar at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Fužinar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fužinar vs Šmartno

Fužinar beat Šmartno 5-1 in 3. SNL - East on October 24, 2025.