Šmartno 0–5 Dekani: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Šmartno

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Dekani

N. Kašiković 82'

M. Kene 55'

A. Zyba 44', 35', 24' (pen)

8/12/2020

2. SNL · Round 1Štadion Šmartno ob Paki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Šmartno24%

×Draw23%

Dekani53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŠmartnoExpected goals in this matchDekani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.88

Šmartno

1.19

Dekani

1.88

Dekani creates 58% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 96 away

0.73

creates per match

0.93

2.82

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Šmartno

0.73

Dekani

0.93

allows per match

Šmartno

2.82

Dekani

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Šmartno+0.00on par

Dekani+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šmartno ↓

Dekani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Šmartno or draw

47%

Šmartno or Dekani

77%

Draw or Dekani

76%

Winning margin

Šmartno wins by 2+

10%

Dekani wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Šmartno 1+ goals

70%

Šmartno 2+ goals

33%

Šmartno 3+ goals

12%

Dekani 1+ goals

85%

Dekani 2+ goals

56%

Dekani 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Šmartno (draw refunded)

31%

Dekani (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šmartno at home — creates 0.73, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

Dekani away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.66 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šmartno attack 0.73 + Dekani defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.19

Dekani attack 0.93 + Šmartno defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Šmartno scores more

24%

level

23%

Dekani scores more

53%

Dekani at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dekani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

E. Hadžić← L. Vranješ

24'

A. ZybaPenalty

35'

44'

46'

46'

55'

61'

61'

67'

67'

N. Kašiković← E. Hadžić

77'

J. Koprivica← M. Kene

77'

N. Ećimović← A. Zyba

78'

S. Džumhur← F. Vezaj

82'

N. Kašiković

Šmartno

Dekani

▼

⚽3

▼

Zyba

Perhavec

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: R. Smajlović

46'▲A. Vezaj←▼M. Purnat

46'▲R. Melavc←▼K. Barič

61'▲B. Verhovšek←▼J. Kac

61'▲D. Kerić←▼M. Križnik

78'▲S. Džumhur←▼F. Vezaj

Šmartno substitutes

VezajMelavcVerhovšekKerićDžumhurDanijelVerdev

Manager: A. Ščulac

4'▲E. Hadžić←▼L. Vranješ

67'▲T. Zonta←▼R. Piciga

67'▲N. Kašiković←▼E. Hadžić

77'▲J. Koprivica←▼M. Kene

77'▲N. Ećimović←▼A. Zyba

Dekani substitutes

HadžićZontaKašikovićKoprivicaEćimovićPerošaŽabić