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Dekani vs Šmartno — 2. SNL 2019

Dekani
Dekani
CANC
14:00
Šmartno
Šmartno
3/7/20212. SNL2. SNL · Round 16Igrišče Ivan Gregorič

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Dekani47%
×Draw25%
Šmartno29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dekani
1.59
Šmartno
1.19

Dekani creates 34% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 11 away

creates per match

Dekani
1.36
Šmartno
1.09

allows per match

Dekani
1.28
Šmartno
1.82

finishing

Dekani+0.00on par
Šmartno+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dekani ↓

Šmartno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dekani or draw
71%
Dekani or Šmartno
75%
Draw or Šmartno
53%

Winning margin

Dekani wins by 2+
24%
Šmartno wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dekani 1+ goals
80%
Dekani 2+ goals
47%
Dekani 3+ goals
21%
Šmartno 1+ goals
70%
Šmartno 2+ goals
33%
Šmartno 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dekani (draw refunded)
62%
Šmartno (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dekani at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.28 · 95 matches

Šmartno away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dekani attack 1.36 + Šmartno defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.59

Šmartno attack 1.09 + Dekani defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dekani scores more
47%
level
25%
Šmartno scores more
29%

Dekani at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dekani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dekani vs Šmartno — Match Preview

Dekani face Šmartno on March 7, 2021 in this 2. SNL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Dekani host Šmartno at Igrišče Ivan Gregorič.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.