Šmartno 1–2 Brda Dobrovo: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Šmartno

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Brda Dobrovo

S. Džumhur 79'

D. Frelih 24'

A. Radovanović 7'

9/6/2020

2. SNL · Round 5Štadion Šmartno ob Paki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Šmartno31%

×Draw22%

Brda Dobrovo47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŠmartnoExpected goals in this matchBrda Dobrovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.91

Šmartno

1.51

Brda Dobrovo

1.91

Brda Dobrovo creates 26% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 23 away

0.73

creates per match

1.00

2.82

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Šmartno

0.73

Brda Dobrovo

1.00

allows per match

Šmartno

2.82

Brda Dobrovo

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Šmartno+0.00on par

Brda Dobrovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šmartno ↓

Brda Dobrovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Šmartno or draw

53%

Šmartno or Brda Dobrovo

78%

Draw or Brda Dobrovo

69%

Winning margin

Šmartno wins by 2+

14%

Brda Dobrovo wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Šmartno 1+ goals

78%

Šmartno 2+ goals

44%

Šmartno 3+ goals

19%

Brda Dobrovo 1+ goals

85%

Brda Dobrovo 2+ goals

57%

Brda Dobrovo 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Šmartno (draw refunded)

40%

Brda Dobrovo (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šmartno at home — creates 0.73, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

Brda Dobrovo away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.30 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šmartno attack 0.73 + Brda Dobrovo defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.51

Brda Dobrovo attack 1.00 + Šmartno defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Šmartno scores more

31%

level

22%

Brda Dobrovo scores more

47%

Brda Dobrovo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Brda Dobrovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

24'

30'

60'

60'

62'

Jure Bužinel← A. Marinič

72'

M. Battaino← M. Jovičić

78'

D. Kerić← D. Trap

78'

S. Džumhur← A. Vezaj

79'

S. Džumhur

88'

A. Medvešček← T. Vodeb

Šmartno

Brda

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: R. Smajlović

30'▲Ž. Verdev←▼F. Lojen

60'▲F. Vezaj←▼M. Purnat

60'▲K. Barič←▼M. Trop

78'▲D. Kerić←▼D. Trap

78'▲S. Džumhur←▼A. Vezaj

Šmartno substitutes

VerdevVezajBaričKerićDžumhurKacDanijel

Manager: A. Botonjić

62'▲Jure Bužinel←▼A. Marinič

72'▲M. Battaino←▼M. Jovičić

88'▲A. Medvešček←▼T. Vodeb

Brda Dobrovo substitutes

BužinelBattainoMedveščekBužinelPetrovčič