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Brda Dobrovo vs Šmartno — 2. SNL 2019

Brda Dobrovo
Brda Dobrovo
CANC
14:00
Šmartno
Šmartno
3/28/20212. SNL2. SNL · Round 20Športni park Vipolže

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Brda Dobrovo33%
×Draw25%
Šmartno43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brda Dobrovo
1.34
Šmartno
1.57

Šmartno creates 17% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 11 away

creates per match

Brda Dobrovo
0.86
Šmartno
1.09

allows per match

Brda Dobrovo
2.05
Šmartno
1.82

finishing

Brda Dobrovo+0.00on par
Šmartno+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brda Dobrovo ↓

Šmartno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Brda Dobrovo or draw
57%
Brda Dobrovo or Šmartno
75%
Draw or Šmartno
67%

Winning margin

Brda Dobrovo wins by 2+
14%
Šmartno wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Brda Dobrovo 1+ goals
74%
Brda Dobrovo 2+ goals
39%
Brda Dobrovo 3+ goals
15%
Šmartno 1+ goals
79%
Šmartno 2+ goals
46%
Šmartno 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Brda Dobrovo (draw refunded)
43%
Šmartno (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brda Dobrovo at home — creates 0.86, concedes 2.05 · 22 matches

Šmartno away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brda Dobrovo attack 0.86 + Šmartno defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.34

Šmartno attack 1.09 + Brda Dobrovo defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Brda Dobrovo scores more
33%
level
25%
Šmartno scores more
43%

Šmartno at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Šmartno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brda Dobrovo face Šmartno (2. SNL)

2. SNL returns with Brda Dobrovo hosting Šmartno. Match starts March 28, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Brda Dobrovo host Šmartno at Športni park Vipolže.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.