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Small Town vs Nimba Kwado — LFA First Division 2020

Small Town
Small Town
FT
0 – 2
Nimba Kwado
Nimba Kwado
2/17/2021LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 10Antoinette Tubman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Small Town18%
×Draw22%
Nimba Kwado60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Small Town
0.93
Nimba Kwado
1.90

Nimba Kwado creates 104% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 50 away

creates per match

Small Town
0.55
Nimba Kwado
1.16

allows per match

Small Town
2.64
Nimba Kwado
1.30

finishing

Small Town+0.00on par
Nimba Kwado+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Small Town ↓

Nimba Kwado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–211%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Small Town or draw
40%
Small Town or Nimba Kwado
78%
Draw or Nimba Kwado
82%

Winning margin

Small Town wins by 2+
6%
Nimba Kwado wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Small Town 1+ goals
61%
Small Town 2+ goals
24%
Small Town 3+ goals
7%
Nimba Kwado 1+ goals
85%
Nimba Kwado 2+ goals
56%
Nimba Kwado 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Small Town (draw refunded)
23%
Nimba Kwado (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Small Town at home — creates 0.55, concedes 2.64 · 11 matches

Nimba Kwado away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.30 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Small Town attack 0.55 + Nimba Kwado defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.93

Nimba Kwado attack 1.16 + Small Town defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Small Town scores more
18%
level
22%
Nimba Kwado scores more
60%

Nimba Kwado at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Nimba Kwado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Small Town vs Nimba Kwado

Nimba Kwado beat Small Town 2-0 in LFA First Division on February 17, 2021.

The match was played at Antoinette Tubman Stadium in Monrovia.