Nimba Kwado 1–0 Small Town: Result & Stats

Nimba Kwado

FT

1 – 0

Small Town

5/9/2021

LFA First Division · Round 21Sanniquellie Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Nimba Kwado63%

×Draw21%

Small Town16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nimba KwadoExpected goals in this matchSmall Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.90

Nimba Kwado

2.00

Small Town

0.90

Nimba Kwado creates 122% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 11 away

1.00

creates per match

1.09

0.71

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Nimba Kwado

1.00

Small Town

1.09

allows per match

Nimba Kwado

0.71

Small Town

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nimba Kwado+0.00on par

Small Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nimba Kwado ↓

Small Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Nimba Kwado or draw

84%

Nimba Kwado or Small Town

79%

Draw or Small Town

37%

Winning margin

Nimba Kwado wins by 2+

38%

Small Town wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Nimba Kwado 1+ goals

86%

Nimba Kwado 2+ goals

59%

Nimba Kwado 3+ goals

32%

Small Town 1+ goals

59%

Small Town 2+ goals

23%

Small Town 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Nimba Kwado (draw refunded)

79%

Small Town (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nimba Kwado at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.71 · 48 matches

Small Town away — creates 1.09, concedes 3.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nimba Kwado attack 1.00 + Small Town defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Small Town attack 1.09 + Nimba Kwado defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Nimba Kwado scores more

63%

level

21%

Small Town scores more

16%

Nimba Kwado at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Nimba Kwado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff