Slovenia 0–0 Slovakia: Result & Stats

Slovenia

AET

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Slovakia

A. Gnezda Čerin 95'

3/23/2025

UEFA Nations League · Play-offs B/CStadion Stožice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Slovenia35%

×Draw29%

Slovakia36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SloveniaExpected goals in this matchSlovakia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.11

Slovenia

1.10

Slovakia

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

1.20

creates per match

0.82

1.40

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Slovenia

1.20

Slovakia

0.82

allows per match

Slovenia

1.40

Slovakia

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovenia+0.00on par

Slovakia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovenia ↓

Slovakia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Slovenia or draw

64%

Slovenia or Slovakia

71%

Draw or Slovakia

65%

Winning margin

Slovenia wins by 2+

14%

Slovakia wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Slovenia 1+ goals

67%

Slovenia 2+ goals

30%

Slovenia 3+ goals

10%

Slovakia 1+ goals

67%

Slovakia 2+ goals

30%

Slovakia 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Slovenia (draw refunded)

50%

Slovakia (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovenia at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Slovakia away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovenia attack 1.20 + Slovakia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Slovakia attack 0.82 + Slovenia defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Slovenia scores more

35%

level

29%

Slovakia scores more

36%

Slovakia at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Slovakia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Oblak

Slovenia · G

9.2

Match Events

63'

Adam Gnezda Čerin

67'

Ondrej Duda

67'

D. Petrovič← S. Lovrić

75'

S. Mráz← R. Boženík

75'

L. Haraslín← I. Schranz

84'

J. Gorenc Stankovič← Ž. Vipotnik

88'

Vanja Drkušić

90'

B. Kramer← T. Elšnik

95'

A. Gnezda Čerin↳ D. Petrovič

99'

100'

100'

101'

105'

112'

118'

118'

120+1'

A. Zeljković← A. Gnezda Čerin

120+1'

D. Brekalo← Ž. Karničnik

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SloveniaSlovakia

Overview

42%Possession58%

20Total Shots24

6Corners7

18Fouls14

Shots

20Total Shots24

7On Target6

7Off Target13

6Blocked5

14Inside Box18

6Outside Box6

Passing

42%Possession58%

497Total Passes681

408Accurate Passes600

82%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

6Saves6

Discipline

18Fouls14

5Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2