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Slovakia vs Slovenia — League #32 2026

Slovakia
Slovakia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Slovenia
Slovenia
M. Mevlja 81' (OG)
9/1/2017League #32League #32 · 1st Round - 7City Arena Trnava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Slovakia48%
×Draw25%
Slovenia27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovakia
1.60
Slovenia
1.15

Slovakia creates 39% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

Slovakia
2.00
Slovenia
0.80

allows per match

Slovakia
1.50
Slovenia
1.20

finishing

Slovakia+0.00on par
Slovenia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovakia ↓

Slovenia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Slovakia or draw
73%
Slovakia or Slovenia
75%
Draw or Slovenia
52%

Winning margin

Slovakia wins by 2+
25%
Slovenia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Slovakia 1+ goals
80%
Slovakia 2+ goals
47%
Slovakia 3+ goals
22%
Slovenia 1+ goals
68%
Slovenia 2+ goals
32%
Slovenia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Slovakia (draw refunded)
64%
Slovenia (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovakia at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Slovenia away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovakia attack 2.00 + Slovenia defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Slovenia attack 0.80 + Slovakia defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Slovakia scores more
48%
level
25%
Slovenia scores more
27%

Slovakia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Slovakia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
S. LobotkaSlovakiaSlovakia · M
8.3

Match Events

9'
M. Viler← B. Jokić
11'
Valter Birsa
55'
A. Rusnák← V. Weiss
60'
B. Verbič← V. Birsa
65'
J. Greguš← J. Kucka
74'
Róbert Mak
80'
R. Rotman← R. Krhin
81'
M. MevljaOwn goal
88'
O. Duda← M. Hamšík

Possession

65%Slovakia

Shots

16Slovakia

Pass accuracy

53%Slovakia

Statistics

SlovakiaSlovenia
Overview
65%Possession35%
16Total Shots6
4Corners3
12Fouls16
Shots
16Total Shots6
6On Target0
5Off Target3
5Blocked3
8Inside Box3
9Outside Box3
Passing
65%Possession35%
605Total Passes314
527Accurate Passes242
87%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
0Saves5
Discipline
12Fouls16
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
5Offsides1

League #32: Slovakia 1–0 Slovenia

Slovakia beat Slovenia 1-0 in League #32 on September 1, 2017.

Goals: M. Mevlja (81' o.g.).

Slovakia controlled possession (65%) and registered 16 shots to 6.

The match was played at City Arena Trnava in Trnava.