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Slovenia vs Slovakia — League #32 2026

Slovenia
Slovenia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Slovakia
Slovakia
R. Kronaveter 74'
10/8/2016League #32League #32 · 1st Round - 2Stadion Stožice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Slovenia70%
×Draw20%
Slovakia10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovenia
1.94
Slovakia
0.57

Slovenia creates 240% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

creates per match

Slovenia
1.20
Slovakia
0.33

allows per match

Slovenia
0.80
Slovakia
2.67

finishing

Slovenia+0.00on par
Slovakia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovenia ↓

Slovakia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–19%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Slovenia or draw
90%
Slovenia or Slovakia
80%
Draw or Slovakia
30%

Winning margin

Slovenia wins by 2+
44%
Slovakia wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Slovenia 1+ goals
86%
Slovenia 2+ goals
58%
Slovenia 3+ goals
30%
Slovakia 1+ goals
43%
Slovakia 2+ goals
11%
Slovakia 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Slovenia (draw refunded)
87%
Slovakia (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovenia at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Slovakia away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovenia attack 1.20 + Slovakia defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.94

Slovakia attack 0.33 + Slovenia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Slovenia scores more
70%
level
20%
Slovakia scores more
10%

Slovenia at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Slovenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
Boštjan Cesar
26'
Rene Krhin
31'
Kornel Saláta
56'
Tomáš Hubočan
68'
M. Novakovič← V. Birsa
69'
Ján Ďurica
72'
R. Kronaveter← J. Kurtič
74'
R. Kronaveter↳ J. Iličić
79'
M. Ďuriš← P. Hrošovský
79'
E. Sabo← L. Pauschek
79'
J. Holúbek← D. Švento
80'
Aljaž Struna
84'
Michal Ďuriš
88'
Juraj Kucka
90+1'
M. Mevlja← R. Bezjak

Possession

52%Slovenia

Shots

7Slovenia

Statistics

SloveniaSlovakia
Overview
52%Possession48%
7Total Shots4
4Corners2
15Fouls14
Shots
7Total Shots4
2On Target1
5Off Target3
Passing
52%Possession48%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
15Fouls14
3Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards0
1Offsides5

League #32: Slovenia 1–0 Slovakia

Slovenia beat Slovakia 1-0 in League #32 on October 8, 2016.

Goals: R. Kronaveter (74').

Slovenia controlled possession (52%) and registered 7 shots to 4.

The match was played at Stadion Stožice in Ljubljana.