Slovenia 1–1 Serbia: Result & Stats

Slovenia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Serbia

6/20/2024

Euro Championship · Group C - 2Allianz Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Slovenia46%

×Draw27%

Serbia27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SloveniaExpected goals in this matchSerbia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.01

Slovenia

1.40

Serbia

1.01

Slovenia creates 39% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.29

creates per match

1.17

0.86

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Slovenia

1.29

Serbia

1.17

allows per match

Slovenia

0.86

Serbia

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovenia+0.00on par

Serbia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovenia ↓

Serbia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Slovenia or draw

73%

Slovenia or Serbia

73%

Draw or Serbia

54%

Winning margin

Slovenia wins by 2+

22%

Serbia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Slovenia 1+ goals

75%

Slovenia 2+ goals

41%

Slovenia 3+ goals

17%

Serbia 1+ goals

64%

Serbia 2+ goals

27%

Serbia 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Slovenia (draw refunded)

63%

Serbia (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovenia at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Serbia away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovenia attack 1.29 + Serbia defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.40

Serbia attack 1.17 + Slovenia defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Slovenia scores more

46%

level

27%

Serbia scores more

27%

Slovenia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Slovenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff