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Serbia vs Slovenia — UEFA Nations League 2018

Serbia
Serbia
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Slovenia
Slovenia
N. Radonjić 90+2'
L. Jović 85'
S. Milinković-Savić 56'
A. Mitrović 24'
P. Stojanović 30'
6/5/2022UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League B - 2Stadion Rajko Mitić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Serbia55%
×Draw27%
Slovenia18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Serbia
1.46
Slovenia
0.71

Serbia creates 106% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Serbia
1.92
Slovenia
0.85

allows per match

Serbia
0.58
Slovenia
1.00

finishing

Serbia+0.00on par
Slovenia+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serbia ↓

Slovenia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Serbia or draw
82%
Serbia or Slovenia
73%
Draw or Slovenia
45%

Winning margin

Serbia wins by 2+
28%
Slovenia wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Serbia 1+ goals
77%
Serbia 2+ goals
43%
Serbia 3+ goals
18%
Slovenia 1+ goals
51%
Slovenia 2+ goals
16%
Slovenia 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Serbia (draw refunded)
75%
Slovenia (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serbia at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

Slovenia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serbia attack 1.92 + Slovenia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.46

Slovenia attack 0.85 + Serbia defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Serbia scores more
55%
level
27%
Slovenia scores more
18%

Serbia at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Serbia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
D. TadićSerbiaSerbia · M
7.9

Match Events

13'
Miha Zajc
23'
Aleksandar Mitrović
24'
A. Mitrović
30'
P. Stojanović↳ B. Šeško
46'
D. Tadić← I. Ilić
46'
L. Jović← Đ. Jovanović
46'
N. Radonjić← M. Ristić
56'
S. Milinković-Savić↳ D. Tadić
63'
A. Šporar← B. Šeško
63'
A. Čerin← J. Gorenc Stankovič
72'
S. Lukić← S. Milinković-Savić
79'
G. Sikošek← M. Mevlja
79'
Ž. Celar← S. Lovrić
81'
U. Račić← A. Mitrović
84'
L. Zahovič← M. Zajc
85'
L. Jović↳ A. Živković
90+2'
N. Radonjić↳ D. Tadić

Possession

61%Serbia

Shots

17Serbia

Pass accuracy

52%Serbia

Statistics

SerbiaSlovenia
Overview
61%Possession39%
17Total Shots7
4Corners0
6Fouls10
Shots
17Total Shots7
7On Target2
5Off Target3
5Blocked2
13Inside Box4
4Outside Box3
Passing
61%Possession39%
628Total Passes405
552Accurate Passes324
88%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
6Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1

UEFA Nations League: Serbia 4–1 Slovenia

Serbia beat Slovenia 4-1 in UEFA Nations League on June 5, 2022.

Goals: A. Mitrović (24'), P. Stojanović (30'), S. Milinković-Savić (56'), L. Jović (85'), N. Radonjić (90+2').

Serbia controlled possession (61%) and registered 17 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stadion Rajko Mitić in Beograd.