Slovenia 2–0 Portugal: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Slovenia

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Portugal

T. Elšnik 80'

A. Čerin 72'

3/26/2024

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Stadion Stožice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Slovenia45%

×Draw29%

Portugal26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SloveniaExpected goals in this matchPortugal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.87

Slovenia

1.23

Portugal

0.87

Slovenia creates 41% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

1.90

creates per match

1.14

0.60

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

Slovenia

1.90

Portugal

1.14

allows per match

Slovenia

0.60

Portugal

0.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovenia+0.00on par

Portugal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovenia ↓

Portugal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Slovenia or draw

74%

Slovenia or Portugal

71%

Draw or Portugal

55%

Winning margin

Slovenia wins by 2+

20%

Portugal wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Slovenia 1+ goals

71%

Slovenia 2+ goals

35%

Slovenia 3+ goals

13%

Portugal 1+ goals

58%

Portugal 2+ goals

22%

Portugal 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Slovenia (draw refunded)

63%

Portugal (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovenia at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

Portugal away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovenia attack 1.90 + Portugal defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.23

Portugal attack 1.14 + Slovenia defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Slovenia scores more

45%

level

29%

Portugal scores more

26%

Slovenia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Slovenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

T. Elšnik

Slovenia · M

7.7

Match Events

17'

Erik Janža

46'

Francisco Conceição← Otávio

46'

50'

50'

65'

67'

67'

72'

80'

T. Elšnik↳ P. Stojanović

87'

V. Drkušić← J. Bijol

87'

J. Gorenc Stankovič← B. Šeško

88'

Jota Silva← João Cancelo

89'

João Neves← Rúben Neves

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SloveniaPortugal

Overview

35%Possession65%

8Total Shots10

2Corners4

13Fouls13

Shots

8Total Shots10

4On Target2

2Off Target7

2Blocked1

6Inside Box7

2Outside Box3

Passing

35%Possession65%

404Total Passes743

328Accurate Passes690

81%Pass Accuracy93%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2