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Slovenia vs Portugal — Friendlies 2026

Slovenia
Slovenia
CANC
22:00
Portugal
Portugal
5/30/2020FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Stadion Gradski vrt (Osijek)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Slovenia45%
×Draw29%
Portugal26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovenia
1.23
Portugal
0.87

Slovenia creates 41% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Slovenia
1.90
Portugal
1.14

allows per match

Slovenia
0.60
Portugal
0.57

finishing

Slovenia+0.00on par
Portugal+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovenia ↓

Portugal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Slovenia or draw
74%
Slovenia or Portugal
71%
Draw or Portugal
55%

Winning margin

Slovenia wins by 2+
20%
Portugal wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Slovenia 1+ goals
71%
Slovenia 2+ goals
35%
Slovenia 3+ goals
13%
Portugal 1+ goals
58%
Portugal 2+ goals
22%
Portugal 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Slovenia (draw refunded)
63%
Portugal (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovenia at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

Portugal away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovenia attack 1.90 + Portugal defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.23

Portugal attack 1.14 + Slovenia defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Slovenia scores more
45%
level
29%
Portugal scores more
26%

Slovenia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Slovenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Slovenia host Portugal

May 30, 2020: Slovenia take on Portugal in Friendlies. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Slovenia host Portugal at Stadion Gradski vrt (Osijek).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.