Slovenia 2–1 Cyprus: Result & Stats | League #32

Slovenia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cyprus

A. Čerin 84'

M. Zajc 48'

A. Kakoullis 89'

11/14/2021

League #32 · Group Stage - 10Stadion Stožice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Slovenia56%

×Draw24%

Cyprus20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SloveniaExpected goals in this matchCyprus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.90

Slovenia

1.70

Cyprus

0.90

Slovenia creates 89% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

1.20

creates per match

1.00

0.80

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Slovenia

1.20

Cyprus

1.00

allows per match

Slovenia

0.80

Cyprus

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovenia+0.00on par

Cyprus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovenia ↓

Cyprus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Slovenia or draw

80%

Slovenia or Cyprus

76%

Draw or Cyprus

44%

Winning margin

Slovenia wins by 2+

31%

Cyprus wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Slovenia 1+ goals

82%

Slovenia 2+ goals

51%

Slovenia 3+ goals

24%

Cyprus 1+ goals

59%

Cyprus 2+ goals

23%

Cyprus 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Slovenia (draw refunded)

74%

Cyprus (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovenia at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Cyprus away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovenia attack 1.20 + Cyprus defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.70

Cyprus attack 1.00 + Slovenia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Slovenia scores more

56%

level

24%

Cyprus scores more

20%

Slovenia at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Slovenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

A. Čerin

Slovenia · M

8.3

Match Events

26'

Benjamin VerbičGoal cancelled

31'

31'

36'

40'

45+3'

48'

74'

81'

A. Kakoullis← F. Papoulis

83'

Grīgorīs Kastanos

84'

L. Štulac← M. Zajc

84'

A. Čerin↳ Ž. Celar

89'

A. Kakoullis↳ G. Kastanos

90+4'

B. Vrhovec← Ž. Celar

90+2'

M. Špoljarić← A. Avraam

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SloveniaCyprus

Overview

68%Possession32%

16Total Shots4

8Corners2

12Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots4

4On Target2

7Off Target1

5Blocked1

14Inside Box1

2Outside Box3

Passing

68%Possession32%

667Total Passes309

589Accurate Passes233

88%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides4