Cyprus 2–1 Slovenia: Result & Stats

Cyprus

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Slovenia

Petar Stojanović 89' (OG)

Pieros Sotiriou 69'

Robert Berić 54'

9/9/2018

UEFA Nations League · League C - 2GSP Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Cyprus32%

×Draw31%

Slovenia37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CyprusExpected goals in this matchSlovenia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.06

Cyprus

0.96

Slovenia

1.06

Slovenia creates 10% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

0.91

creates per match

0.85

1.27

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Cyprus

0.91

Slovenia

0.85

allows per match

Cyprus

1.27

Slovenia

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cyprus+0.00on par

Slovenia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cyprus ↓

Slovenia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Cyprus or draw

63%

Cyprus or Slovenia

69%

Draw or Slovenia

68%

Winning margin

Cyprus wins by 2+

12%

Slovenia wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Cyprus 1+ goals

62%

Cyprus 2+ goals

25%

Cyprus 3+ goals

7%

Slovenia 1+ goals

65%

Slovenia 2+ goals

29%

Slovenia 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Cyprus (draw refunded)

46%

Slovenia (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cyprus at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Slovenia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cyprus attack 0.91 + Slovenia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Slovenia attack 0.85 + Cyprus defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cyprus scores more

32%

level

31%

Slovenia scores more

37%

Slovenia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Slovenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

Miha Blažić

46'

Roman Bezjak← Benjamin Verbič

54'

Robert Berić↳ Bojan Jokić

60'

Onisiforos Roussias← Grigoris Kastanos

67'

Renato Margaca← Nicholas Ioannou

69'

Pieros Sotiriou↳ Fotis Papoulis

72'

Kostakis Artymatas

77'

Leo Štulac← Jasmin Kurtić

79'

Bojan Jokić

80'

Miha Zajc

83'

Andraž Šporar← Robert Berić

89'

Petar StojanovićOwn goal

90'

Amir Dervišević

90'

Giorgos Merkis← Georgios Efrem

Possession

Shots

Statistics

CyprusSlovenia

Overview

53%Possession47%

9Total Shots8

4Corners2

16Fouls22

Shots

9Total Shots8

6On Target3

3Off Target5

Passing

53%Possession47%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

16Fouls22

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

3Offsides3