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Slovenia U21 vs Norway U21 — League #850 2026

Slovenia U21
Slovenia U21
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Norway U21
Norway U21
D. Pejicic 76'
M. Malensek 6'
3/31/2026League #850League #850 · Group Stage - 17Mestni stadion Ptuj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Slovenia U2147%
×Draw24%
Norway U2129%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovenia U21
1.68
Norway U21
1.25

Slovenia U21 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Slovenia U21
1.60
Norway U21
1.50

allows per match

Slovenia U21
1.00
Norway U21
1.75

finishing

Slovenia U21+0.00on par
Norway U21+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovenia U21 ↓

Norway U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Slovenia U21 or draw
71%
Slovenia U21 or Norway U21
76%
Draw or Norway U21
53%

Winning margin

Slovenia U21 wins by 2+
25%
Norway U21 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Slovenia U21 1+ goals
81%
Slovenia U21 2+ goals
50%
Slovenia U21 3+ goals
24%
Norway U21 1+ goals
71%
Norway U21 2+ goals
36%
Norway U21 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Slovenia U21 (draw refunded)
62%
Norway U21 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovenia U21 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Norway U21 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovenia U21 attack 1.60 + Norway U21 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.68

Norway U21 attack 1.50 + Slovenia U21 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Slovenia U21 scores more
47%
level
24%
Norway U21 scores more
29%

Slovenia U21 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Slovenia U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
M. Malensek↳ M. Ristic
34'
M. Ristic
46'
M. Haaland← D. Bassi
69'
S. W. Egeli
73'
H. Skogvold← M. Broholm
73'
N. Hopland← V. E. Halvorsen
73'
T. Hernes← J. Hansen
76'
D. Pejicic↳ D. Kojic
79'
A. Jakupovic← L. Rimac
79'
L. Topalovic← D. Pejicic
88'
J. Bakke← S. Nypan
88'
F. Jevsenak← R. Storman
90+1'
N. Hopland
90+2'
K. Bendra← D. Kojic
90+2'
J. Cuber Potocnik← M. Malensek

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #850: Slovenia U21 2–0 Norway U21

Slovenia U21 beat Norway U21 2-0 in League #850 on March 31, 2026.

Goals: M. Malensek (6'), D. Pejicic (76').

The match was played at Mestni stadion Ptuj in Ptuj.