Norway U21 5–0 Slovenia U21: Result & Stats

Norway U21

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Slovenia U21

E. Fauske Helland 55'

S. W. Egeli 47', 15'

D. Bassi 19'

N. Odegard 8'

9/9/2025

League #850 · Group Stage - 4Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Norway U2176%

×Draw15%

Slovenia U219%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Norway U21Expected goals in this matchSlovenia U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

0.71

Norway U21

2.48

Slovenia U21

0.71

Norway U21 creates 249% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

3.25

creates per match

0.43

1.00

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Norway U21

3.25

Slovenia U21

0.43

allows per match

Norway U21

1.00

Slovenia U21

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norway U21+0.00on par

Slovenia U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norway U21 ↓

Slovenia U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Norway U21 or draw

91%

Norway U21 or Slovenia U21

85%

Draw or Slovenia U21

24%

Winning margin

Norway U21 wins by 2+

53%

Slovenia U21 wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Norway U21 1+ goals

92%

Norway U21 2+ goals

70%

Norway U21 3+ goals

44%

Slovenia U21 1+ goals

51%

Slovenia U21 2+ goals

16%

Slovenia U21 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Norway U21 (draw refunded)

90%

Slovenia U21 (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norway U21 at home — creates 3.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Slovenia U21 away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norway U21 attack 3.25 + Slovenia U21 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.48

Slovenia U21 attack 0.43 + Norway U21 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Norway U21 scores more

76%

level

15%

Slovenia U21 scores more

9%

Norway U21 at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Norway U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

N. Odegard

10'

E. Fauske Helland

15'

S. W. Egeli↳ M. Riisnaes

19'

D. Bassi↳ S. W. Egeli

23'

M. Riisnaes

44'

O. Braude

46'

M. Malensek← F. Jevsenak

46'

R. Storman← Z. Petrovic

47'

S. W. Egeli↳ D. Bassi

48'

S. Kuzmic

50'

B. Selan

55'

E. Fauske Helland↳ S. W. Egeli

58'

63'

66'

66'

69'

J. Reitan-Sunde← M. Broholm

69'

H. Skogvold← N. Odegard

70'

R. Obric← R. Schaubach

70'

E. Krupic← D. Kojic

79'

R. Holten← S. W. Egeli

79'

V. E. Halvorsen← M. Riisnaes

84'

M. Acimovic← B. Selan

Norway

Slovenia

1

Stubljar

5

▼

Schaubach

20

▼

Petrovic

13

▼

6

3

2

8

▼

Selan

7

Potocnik

10

Topalovic

9

▼

Kojic

1

Borsheim

6

A

▼

Riisnaes

2

Braude

8

Hjerto-Da

5

⚽

Helland

4

Hopland

10

▼

Broholm

7

Nypan

9

⚽2A

▼

Egeli

17

⚽

▼

Odegard

11

⚽A

▼

Bassi

Manager: Jan Peder Jalland

63'▲R. Norheim←▼D. Bassi

69'▲J. Reitan-Sunde←▼M. Broholm

69'▲H. Skogvold←▼N. Odegard

79'▲R. Holten←▼S. W. Egeli

79'▲V. E. Halvorsen←▼M. Riisnaes

Norway U21 substitutes

12Saetren3Reitan-Sunde13Holten14Roaldsoy15Romsaas16Norheim20Skogvold21Kilen22Halvorsen

Manager: Andrej Razdrh

46'▲M. Malensek←▼F. Jevsenak

46'▲R. Storman←▼Z. Petrovic

70'▲R. Obric←▼R. Schaubach

70'▲E. Krupic←▼D. Kojic

84'▲M. Acimovic←▼B. Selan

Slovenia U21 substitutes

22Kolar4Obric11Malensek14Storman16Bendra17Krupic18Acimovic23Milic15Lorber