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Slovenia U19 vs Belgium U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Slovenia U19
Slovenia U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Belgium U19
Belgium U19
11/15/2023UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationUEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 3Arena Egnatia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Slovenia U1926%
×Draw27%
Belgium U1947%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovenia U19
0.97
Belgium U19
1.39

Belgium U19 creates 43% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Slovenia U19
0.86
Belgium U19
1.64

allows per match

Slovenia U19
1.14
Belgium U19
1.07

finishing

Slovenia U19+0.00on par
Belgium U19+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovenia U19 ↓

Belgium U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Slovenia U19 or draw
53%
Slovenia U19 or Belgium U19
73%
Draw or Belgium U19
74%

Winning margin

Slovenia U19 wins by 2+
9%
Belgium U19 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Slovenia U19 1+ goals
62%
Slovenia U19 2+ goals
25%
Slovenia U19 3+ goals
7%
Belgium U19 1+ goals
75%
Belgium U19 2+ goals
40%
Belgium U19 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Slovenia U19 (draw refunded)
36%
Belgium U19 (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovenia U19 at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

Belgium U19 away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovenia U19 attack 0.86 + Belgium U19 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.97

Belgium U19 attack 1.64 + Slovenia U19 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Slovenia U19 scores more
26%
level
27%
Belgium U19 scores more
47%

Belgium U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Belgium U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovenia U19 vs Belgium U19

Slovenia U19 and Belgium U19 drew 1-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 15, 2023.

The match was played at Arena Egnatia in Rrogozhinë.