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Belgium U19 vs Slovenia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Belgium U19
Belgium U19
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Slovenia U19
Slovenia U19
3/22/2023UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationUEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 2Bezirkssportanlage Obervieland

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Belgium U1954%
×Draw24%
Slovenia U1922%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belgium U19
1.73
Slovenia U19
1.00

Belgium U19 creates 73% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 16 away

creates per match

Belgium U19
1.83
Slovenia U19
1.06

allows per match

Belgium U19
0.94
Slovenia U19
1.63

finishing

Belgium U19+0.00on par
Slovenia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgium U19 ↓

Slovenia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Belgium U19 or draw
78%
Belgium U19 or Slovenia U19
76%
Draw or Slovenia U19
46%

Winning margin

Belgium U19 wins by 2+
30%
Slovenia U19 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Belgium U19 1+ goals
82%
Belgium U19 2+ goals
52%
Belgium U19 3+ goals
25%
Slovenia U19 1+ goals
63%
Slovenia U19 2+ goals
26%
Slovenia U19 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Belgium U19 (draw refunded)
71%
Slovenia U19 (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgium U19 at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

Slovenia U19 away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgium U19 attack 1.83 + Slovenia U19 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.73

Slovenia U19 attack 1.06 + Belgium U19 defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Belgium U19 scores more
54%
level
24%
Slovenia U19 scores more
22%

Belgium U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Belgium U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Belgium U19 0–0 Slovenia U19

Belgium U19 and Slovenia U19 drew 0-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 22, 2023.

The match was played at Bezirkssportanlage Obervieland in Bremen.