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Sloven Ruma vs Omladinac NB — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Sloven Ruma
Sloven Ruma
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Omladinac NB
Omladinac NB
6/1/2024Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 30Stadion Sloven

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sloven Ruma51%
×Draw26%
Omladinac NB24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloven Ruma
1.54
Omladinac NB
0.96

Sloven Ruma creates 60% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 103 away

creates per match

Sloven Ruma
1.97
Omladinac NB
1.09

allows per match

Sloven Ruma
0.83
Omladinac NB
1.10

finishing

Sloven Ruma+0.00on par
Omladinac NB+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloven Ruma ↓

Omladinac NB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sloven Ruma or draw
76%
Sloven Ruma or Omladinac NB
74%
Draw or Omladinac NB
49%

Winning margin

Sloven Ruma wins by 2+
26%
Omladinac NB wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sloven Ruma 1+ goals
79%
Sloven Ruma 2+ goals
45%
Sloven Ruma 3+ goals
20%
Omladinac NB 1+ goals
62%
Omladinac NB 2+ goals
25%
Omladinac NB 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sloven Ruma (draw refunded)
68%
Omladinac NB (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloven Ruma at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.83 · 30 matches

Omladinac NB away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.10 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloven Ruma attack 1.97 + Omladinac NB defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.54

Omladinac NB attack 1.09 + Sloven Ruma defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sloven Ruma scores more
51%
level
26%
Omladinac NB scores more
24%

Sloven Ruma at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sloven Ruma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sloven Ruma vs Omladinac NB

Sloven Ruma beat Omladinac NB 2-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Sloven in Ruma.