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Omladinac NB vs Sloven Ruma — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Omladinac NB
Omladinac NB
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Sloven Ruma
Sloven Ruma
11/19/2023Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 15Stadion FK Omladinac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Omladinac NB40%
×Draw25%
Sloven Ruma35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Omladinac NB
1.46
Sloven Ruma
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 30 away

creates per match

Omladinac NB
1.61
Sloven Ruma
1.57

allows per match

Omladinac NB
1.15
Sloven Ruma
1.30

finishing

Omladinac NB+0.00on par
Sloven Ruma+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omladinac NB ↓

Sloven Ruma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Omladinac NB or draw
65%
Omladinac NB or Sloven Ruma
75%
Draw or Sloven Ruma
60%

Winning margin

Omladinac NB wins by 2+
19%
Sloven Ruma wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Omladinac NB 1+ goals
77%
Omladinac NB 2+ goals
43%
Omladinac NB 3+ goals
18%
Sloven Ruma 1+ goals
74%
Sloven Ruma 2+ goals
39%
Sloven Ruma 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Omladinac NB (draw refunded)
53%
Sloven Ruma (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omladinac NB at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.15 · 101 matches

Sloven Ruma away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omladinac NB attack 1.61 + Sloven Ruma defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.46

Sloven Ruma attack 1.57 + Omladinac NB defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Omladinac NB scores more
40%
level
25%
Sloven Ruma scores more
35%

Omladinac NB at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Omladinac NB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Omladinac NB vs Sloven Ruma

Sloven Ruma beat Omladinac NB 3-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Omladinac in Novi Banovci.