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Sloven Ruma vs Hajduk 1912 Kula — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Sloven Ruma
Sloven Ruma
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hajduk 1912 Kula
Hajduk 1912 Kula
8/26/2023Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 3Stadion Sloven

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sloven Ruma57%
×Draw23%
Hajduk 1912 Kula20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloven Ruma
1.86
Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.00

Sloven Ruma creates 86% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 72 away

creates per match

Sloven Ruma
1.97
Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.18

allows per match

Sloven Ruma
0.83
Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.76

finishing

Sloven Ruma+0.00on par
Hajduk 1912 Kula+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloven Ruma ↓

Hajduk 1912 Kula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sloven Ruma or draw
80%
Sloven Ruma or Hajduk 1912 Kula
77%
Draw or Hajduk 1912 Kula
43%

Winning margin

Sloven Ruma wins by 2+
33%
Hajduk 1912 Kula wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sloven Ruma 1+ goals
84%
Sloven Ruma 2+ goals
55%
Sloven Ruma 3+ goals
28%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 1+ goals
63%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 2+ goals
26%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sloven Ruma (draw refunded)
74%
Hajduk 1912 Kula (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloven Ruma at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.83 · 30 matches

Hajduk 1912 Kula away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.76 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloven Ruma attack 1.97 + Hajduk 1912 Kula defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.86

Hajduk 1912 Kula attack 1.18 + Sloven Ruma defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sloven Ruma scores more
57%
level
23%
Hajduk 1912 Kula scores more
20%

Sloven Ruma at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sloven Ruma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Sloven Ruma 1–0 Hajduk 1912 Kula

Sloven Ruma beat Hajduk 1912 Kula 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Sloven in Ruma.