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Sloven Ruma vs 1. Maj Ruma — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Sloven Ruma
Sloven Ruma
FT
6 – 0
HT: 5 – 0
1. Maj Ruma
1. Maj Ruma
5/18/2024Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 28Stadion Sloven

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sloven Ruma58%
×Draw23%
1. Maj Ruma19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloven Ruma
1.84
1. Maj Ruma
0.95

Sloven Ruma creates 94% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 72 away

creates per match

Sloven Ruma
1.97
1. Maj Ruma
1.06

allows per match

Sloven Ruma
0.83
1. Maj Ruma
1.72

finishing

Sloven Ruma+0.00on par
1. Maj Ruma+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloven Ruma ↓

1. Maj Ruma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sloven Ruma or draw
81%
Sloven Ruma or 1. Maj Ruma
77%
Draw or 1. Maj Ruma
42%

Winning margin

Sloven Ruma wins by 2+
34%
1. Maj Ruma wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sloven Ruma 1+ goals
84%
Sloven Ruma 2+ goals
55%
Sloven Ruma 3+ goals
28%
1. Maj Ruma 1+ goals
61%
1. Maj Ruma 2+ goals
25%
1. Maj Ruma 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sloven Ruma (draw refunded)
75%
1. Maj Ruma (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloven Ruma at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.83 · 30 matches

1. Maj Ruma away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.72 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloven Ruma attack 1.97 + 1. Maj Ruma defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.84

1. Maj Ruma attack 1.06 + Sloven Ruma defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sloven Ruma scores more
58%
level
23%
1. Maj Ruma scores more
19%

Sloven Ruma at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sloven Ruma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Sloven Ruma 6–0 1. Maj Ruma

Sloven Ruma beat 1. Maj Ruma 6-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Sloven in Ruma.