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1. Maj Ruma vs Sloven Ruma — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

1. Maj Ruma
1. Maj Ruma
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sloven Ruma
Sloven Ruma
11/4/2023Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 13Stadion Maj Ruma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

1. Maj Ruma37%
×Draw27%
Sloven Ruma36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. Maj Ruma
1.27
Sloven Ruma
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 72 home / 30 away

creates per match

1. Maj Ruma
1.25
Sloven Ruma
1.57

allows per match

1. Maj Ruma
0.90
Sloven Ruma
1.30

finishing

1. Maj Ruma+0.00on par
Sloven Ruma+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. Maj Ruma ↓

Sloven Ruma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

1. Maj Ruma or draw
64%
1. Maj Ruma or Sloven Ruma
73%
Draw or Sloven Ruma
63%

Winning margin

1. Maj Ruma wins by 2+
16%
Sloven Ruma wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

1. Maj Ruma 1+ goals
72%
1. Maj Ruma 2+ goals
36%
1. Maj Ruma 3+ goals
14%
Sloven Ruma 1+ goals
71%
Sloven Ruma 2+ goals
35%
Sloven Ruma 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

1. Maj Ruma (draw refunded)
51%
Sloven Ruma (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. Maj Ruma at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.90 · 72 matches

Sloven Ruma away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. Maj Ruma attack 1.25 + Sloven Ruma defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sloven Ruma attack 1.57 + 1. Maj Ruma defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

1. Maj Ruma scores more
37%
level
27%
Sloven Ruma scores more
36%

1. Maj Ruma at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "1. Maj Ruma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: 1. Maj Ruma 0–2 Sloven Ruma

Sloven Ruma beat 1. Maj Ruma 2-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Maj Ruma in Ruma.