Slovan Velvary 3–5 Slovan Liberec II

Slovan Velvary

FT

3 – 5

HT: 1 – 5

Slovan Liberec II

10/4/2025

3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 9Football pitch Velvary

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Slovan Velvary50%

×Draw22%

Slovan Liberec II27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovan VelvaryExpected goals in this matchSlovan Liberec II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.38

Slovan Velvary

1.94

Slovan Liberec II

1.38

Slovan Velvary creates 41% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 66 away

1.83

creates per match

1.48

1.27

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Slovan Velvary

1.83

Slovan Liberec II

1.48

allows per match

Slovan Velvary

1.27

Slovan Liberec II

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovan Velvary+0.00on par

Slovan Liberec II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Velvary ↓

Slovan Liberec II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Slovan Velvary or draw

73%

Slovan Velvary or Slovan Liberec II

78%

Draw or Slovan Liberec II

50%

Winning margin

Slovan Velvary wins by 2+

29%

Slovan Liberec II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Slovan Velvary 1+ goals

86%

Slovan Velvary 2+ goals

58%

Slovan Velvary 3+ goals

30%

Slovan Liberec II 1+ goals

75%

Slovan Liberec II 2+ goals

40%

Slovan Liberec II 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Slovan Velvary (draw refunded)

65%

Slovan Liberec II (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Velvary at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.27 · 64 matches

Slovan Liberec II away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.05 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Velvary attack 1.83 + Slovan Liberec II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.94

Slovan Liberec II attack 1.48 + Slovan Velvary defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Slovan Velvary scores more

50%

level

22%

Slovan Liberec II scores more

27%

Slovan Velvary at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Slovan Velvary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff