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Slovan Liberec II vs Slovan Velvary — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Slovan Liberec II
Slovan Liberec II
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Slovan Velvary
Slovan Velvary
8/6/20233. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 1Městský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Slovan Liberec II46%
×Draw23%
Slovan Velvary32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Liberec II
1.85
Slovan Velvary
1.52

Slovan Liberec II creates 22% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 64 away

creates per match

Slovan Liberec II
2.03
Slovan Velvary
1.58

allows per match

Slovan Liberec II
1.45
Slovan Velvary
1.67

finishing

Slovan Liberec II+0.00on par
Slovan Velvary+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Liberec II ↓

Slovan Velvary →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Slovan Liberec II or draw
68%
Slovan Liberec II or Slovan Velvary
77%
Draw or Slovan Velvary
54%

Winning margin

Slovan Liberec II wins by 2+
25%
Slovan Velvary wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Slovan Liberec II 1+ goals
84%
Slovan Liberec II 2+ goals
55%
Slovan Liberec II 3+ goals
28%
Slovan Velvary 1+ goals
78%
Slovan Velvary 2+ goals
45%
Slovan Velvary 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Slovan Liberec II (draw refunded)
59%
Slovan Velvary (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Liberec II at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.45 · 65 matches

Slovan Velvary away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.67 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Liberec II attack 2.03 + Slovan Velvary defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.85

Slovan Velvary attack 1.58 + Slovan Liberec II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Slovan Liberec II scores more
46%
level
23%
Slovan Velvary scores more
32%

Slovan Liberec II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Slovan Liberec II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL B: Slovan Liberec II 2–4 Slovan Velvary

Slovan Velvary beat Slovan Liberec II 4-2 in 3. liga - CFL B on August 6, 2023.

The match was played at Městský stadion in Liberec.