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Slovan Velvary vs Hradec Králové II — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Slovan Velvary
Slovan Velvary
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Hradec Králové II
Hradec Králové II
11/11/20233. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 15Stadion TJ Slovan Velvary

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Slovan Velvary50%
×Draw23%
Hradec Králové II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Velvary
1.81
Hradec Králové II
1.29

Slovan Velvary creates 40% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 81 away

creates per match

Slovan Velvary
1.83
Hradec Králové II
1.32

allows per match

Slovan Velvary
1.27
Hradec Králové II
1.80

finishing

Slovan Velvary+0.00on par
Hradec Králové II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Velvary ↓

Hradec Králové II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Slovan Velvary or draw
73%
Slovan Velvary or Hradec Králové II
77%
Draw or Hradec Králové II
50%

Winning margin

Slovan Velvary wins by 2+
27%
Hradec Králové II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Slovan Velvary 1+ goals
84%
Slovan Velvary 2+ goals
54%
Slovan Velvary 3+ goals
27%
Hradec Králové II 1+ goals
72%
Hradec Králové II 2+ goals
37%
Hradec Králové II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Slovan Velvary (draw refunded)
64%
Hradec Králové II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Velvary at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.27 · 64 matches

Hradec Králové II away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.80 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Velvary attack 1.83 + Hradec Králové II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.81

Hradec Králové II attack 1.32 + Slovan Velvary defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Slovan Velvary scores more
50%
level
23%
Hradec Králové II scores more
27%

Slovan Velvary at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Slovan Velvary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL B: Slovan Velvary 3–1 Hradec Králové II

Slovan Velvary beat Hradec Králové II 3-1 in 3. liga - CFL B on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion TJ Slovan Velvary in Velvary.