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Hradec Králové II vs Slovan Velvary — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Hradec Králové II
Hradec Králové II
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Slovan Velvary
Slovan Velvary
D. Richter 42', 34'
L. Vopat 32'
6/10/20233. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 30Areál SCM Bavlna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Hradec Králové II44%
×Draw24%
Slovan Velvary32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hradec Králové II
1.69
Slovan Velvary
1.42

Hradec Králové II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 64 away

creates per match

Hradec Králové II
1.70
Slovan Velvary
1.58

allows per match

Hradec Králové II
1.25
Slovan Velvary
1.67

finishing

Hradec Králové II+0.00on par
Slovan Velvary+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hradec Králové II ↓

Slovan Velvary →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Hradec Králové II or draw
68%
Hradec Králové II or Slovan Velvary
76%
Draw or Slovan Velvary
56%

Winning margin

Hradec Králové II wins by 2+
23%
Slovan Velvary wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hradec Králové II 1+ goals
82%
Hradec Králové II 2+ goals
50%
Hradec Králové II 3+ goals
24%
Slovan Velvary 1+ goals
76%
Slovan Velvary 2+ goals
41%
Slovan Velvary 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hradec Králové II (draw refunded)
58%
Slovan Velvary (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hradec Králové II at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.25 · 79 matches

Slovan Velvary away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.67 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hradec Králové II attack 1.70 + Slovan Velvary defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

Slovan Velvary attack 1.58 + Hradec Králové II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hradec Králové II scores more
44%
level
24%
Slovan Velvary scores more
32%

Hradec Králové II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hradec Králové II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
L. Vopat
34'
D. Richter
42'
D. Richter
57'
A. Misci← A. Misci
57'
J. Schneider← J. Schneider
73'
J. Rubes
74'
R. Zengler← R. Zengler
78'
J. Dorfl← J. Dorfl
84'
P. Sichan← P. Sichan
84'
L. Hruska← L. Hruska
85'
D. Sustr← R. Bunikovsky

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL B: Hradec Králové II 0–3 Slovan Velvary

Slovan Velvary beat Hradec Králové II 3-0 in 3. liga - CFL B on June 10, 2023.

Goals: L. Vopat (32'), D. Richter (34', 42').

The match was played at Areál SCM Bavlna in Hradec Králové.