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Slovan Velvary vs Chlumec nad Cidlinou — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Slovan Velvary
Slovan Velvary
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Chlumec nad Cidlinou
Chlumec nad Cidlinou
8/12/20233. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 2Stadion TJ Slovan Velvary

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Slovan Velvary49%
×Draw23%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Velvary
1.84
Chlumec nad Cidlinou
1.36

Slovan Velvary creates 35% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 65 away

creates per match

Slovan Velvary
1.83
Chlumec nad Cidlinou
1.45

allows per match

Slovan Velvary
1.27
Chlumec nad Cidlinou
1.85

finishing

Slovan Velvary+0.00on par
Chlumec nad Cidlinou+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Velvary ↓

Chlumec nad Cidlinou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Slovan Velvary or draw
71%
Slovan Velvary or Chlumec nad Cidlinou
77%
Draw or Chlumec nad Cidlinou
51%

Winning margin

Slovan Velvary wins by 2+
27%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Slovan Velvary 1+ goals
84%
Slovan Velvary 2+ goals
55%
Slovan Velvary 3+ goals
28%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou 1+ goals
74%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou 2+ goals
39%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Slovan Velvary (draw refunded)
63%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Velvary at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.27 · 64 matches

Chlumec nad Cidlinou away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.85 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Velvary attack 1.83 + Chlumec nad Cidlinou defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.84

Chlumec nad Cidlinou attack 1.45 + Slovan Velvary defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Slovan Velvary scores more
49%
level
23%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou scores more
29%

Slovan Velvary at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Slovan Velvary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL B: Slovan Velvary 3–2 Chlumec nad Cidlinou

Slovan Velvary beat Chlumec nad Cidlinou 3-2 in 3. liga - CFL B on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion TJ Slovan Velvary in Velvary.