Chlumec nad Cidlinou 1–3 Slovan Velvary

Chlumec nad Cidlinou

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Slovan Velvary

6/5/2022

3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 28Městský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Chlumec nad Cidlinou42%

×Draw23%

Slovan Velvary35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chlumec nad CidlinouExpected goals in this matchSlovan Velvary

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.53

Chlumec nad Cidlinou

1.69

Slovan Velvary

1.53

Chlumec nad Cidlinou creates 10% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 64 away

1.71

creates per match

1.58

1.48

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Chlumec nad Cidlinou

1.71

Slovan Velvary

1.58

allows per match

Chlumec nad Cidlinou

1.48

Slovan Velvary

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chlumec nad Cidlinou+0.00on par

Slovan Velvary+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chlumec nad Cidlinou ↓

Slovan Velvary →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Chlumec nad Cidlinou or draw

65%

Chlumec nad Cidlinou or Slovan Velvary

77%

Draw or Slovan Velvary

58%

Winning margin

Chlumec nad Cidlinou wins by 2+

21%

Slovan Velvary wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Chlumec nad Cidlinou 1+ goals

82%

Chlumec nad Cidlinou 2+ goals

50%

Chlumec nad Cidlinou 3+ goals

24%

Slovan Velvary 1+ goals

78%

Slovan Velvary 2+ goals

45%

Slovan Velvary 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Chlumec nad Cidlinou (draw refunded)

54%

Slovan Velvary (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chlumec nad Cidlinou at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.48 · 65 matches

Slovan Velvary away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.67 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chlumec nad Cidlinou attack 1.71 + Slovan Velvary defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

Slovan Velvary attack 1.58 + Chlumec nad Cidlinou defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chlumec nad Cidlinou scores more

42%

level

23%

Slovan Velvary scores more

35%

Chlumec nad Cidlinou at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chlumec nad Cidlinou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff