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Slovan Rosice vs Karviná II — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Slovan Rosice
Slovan Rosice
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Karviná II
Karviná II
F. Adeshina 90+2'
A. Fila 69'
S. Charles 46'
Papalele 57'
5/4/20243. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 26Hřiště FC Slovan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Slovan Rosice49%
×Draw24%
Karviná II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Rosice
1.69
Karviná II
1.18

Slovan Rosice creates 43% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 37 away

creates per match

Slovan Rosice
1.60
Karviná II
1.51

allows per match

Slovan Rosice
0.85
Karviná II
1.78

finishing

Slovan Rosice+0.00on par
Karviná II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Rosice ↓

Karviná II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Slovan Rosice or draw
73%
Slovan Rosice or Karviná II
76%
Draw or Karviná II
51%

Winning margin

Slovan Rosice wins by 2+
26%
Karviná II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Slovan Rosice 1+ goals
82%
Slovan Rosice 2+ goals
50%
Slovan Rosice 3+ goals
24%
Karviná II 1+ goals
69%
Karviná II 2+ goals
33%
Karviná II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Slovan Rosice (draw refunded)
65%
Karviná II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Rosice at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.85 · 68 matches

Karviná II away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.78 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Rosice attack 1.60 + Karviná II defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.69

Karviná II attack 1.51 + Slovan Rosice defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Slovan Rosice scores more
49%
level
24%
Karviná II scores more
27%

Slovan Rosice at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Slovan Rosice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
P. Brzoska
39'
J. Lapes← V. Ulihanets
46'
S. Charles
57'
Papalele
61'
F. Antovski← F. Antovski
61'
M. Molitorisz← M. Molitorisz
67'
A. Fila← A. Fila
69'
A. Fila
71'
D. Trtek← D. Trtek
71'
E. Sedlacek← E. Sedlacek
75'
S. Byrtus← S. Byrtus
75'
N. Trcek← N. Trcek
83'
F. Adeshina← F. Adeshina
90+1'
Papalele
90+1'
Kahuan Vinicius
90+2'
F. Adeshina

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Slovan Rosice 3–1 Karviná II

Slovan Rosice beat Karviná II 3-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on May 4, 2024.

Goals: S. Charles (46'), Papalele (57'), A. Fila (69'), F. Adeshina (90+2').

The match was played at Hřiště FC Slovan in Rosice.