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Karviná II vs Slovan Rosice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Karviná II
Karviná II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Slovan Rosice
Slovan Rosice
D. Zak 87' (pen)
A. Fila 67'
10/1/20233. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 9Stadion Kovona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Karviná II35%
×Draw25%
Slovan Rosice39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karviná II
1.36
Slovan Rosice
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 65 away

creates per match

Karviná II
1.50
Slovan Rosice
1.29

allows per match

Karviná II
1.61
Slovan Rosice
1.23

finishing

Karviná II+0.00on par
Slovan Rosice+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karviná II ↓

Slovan Rosice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Karviná II or draw
61%
Karviná II or Slovan Rosice
75%
Draw or Slovan Rosice
65%

Winning margin

Karviná II wins by 2+
16%
Slovan Rosice wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Karviná II 1+ goals
74%
Karviná II 2+ goals
39%
Karviná II 3+ goals
16%
Slovan Rosice 1+ goals
77%
Slovan Rosice 2+ goals
42%
Slovan Rosice 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Karviná II (draw refunded)
47%
Slovan Rosice (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karviná II at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.61 · 36 matches

Slovan Rosice away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.23 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karviná II attack 1.50 + Slovan Rosice defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.36

Slovan Rosice attack 1.29 + Karviná II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Karviná II scores more
35%
level
25%
Slovan Rosice scores more
39%

Slovan Rosice at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Slovan Rosice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
F. Nemecek← F. Nemecek
52'
A. Traore
60'
Papalele← M. Molitorisz
66'
M. Hosek← M. Zednicek
67'
A. Fila
68'
F. Matula← F. Matula
68'
K. Kulik← K. Kulik
71'
Kahuan Vinicius
74'
E. Sedlacek
80'
M. Novotny← M. Novotny
82'
M. Bielan← D. Jurga
82'
P. Brzoska← P. Brzoska
83'
V. Neuman
86'
R. Buchta
87'
D. ZakPenalty
90+1'
J. Drobek

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karviná II vs Slovan Rosice

Karviná II and Slovan Rosice drew 1-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on October 1, 2023.

Goals: A. Fila (67'), D. Zak (87' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Kovona in Karviná.