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Slovan Rosice vs Frýdlant — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Slovan Rosice
Slovan Rosice
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Frýdlant
Frýdlant
K. Kulik 90'
A. Fila 73'
T. Selinger 54'
E. Sedlacek 37', 3'
A. Varadi 48'
8/13/20223. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 2Hřiště FC Slovan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Slovan Rosice61%
×Draw21%
Frýdlant18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Rosice
2.00
Frýdlant
0.99

Slovan Rosice creates 102% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 34 away

creates per match

Slovan Rosice
1.60
Frýdlant
1.12

allows per match

Slovan Rosice
0.85
Frýdlant
2.41

finishing

Slovan Rosice+0.00on par
Frýdlant+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Rosice ↓

Frýdlant →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Slovan Rosice or draw
82%
Slovan Rosice or Frýdlant
79%
Draw or Frýdlant
39%

Winning margin

Slovan Rosice wins by 2+
37%
Frýdlant wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Slovan Rosice 1+ goals
86%
Slovan Rosice 2+ goals
59%
Slovan Rosice 3+ goals
32%
Frýdlant 1+ goals
63%
Frýdlant 2+ goals
26%
Frýdlant 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Slovan Rosice (draw refunded)
77%
Frýdlant (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Rosice at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.85 · 68 matches

Frýdlant away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.41 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Rosice attack 1.60 + Frýdlant defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.00

Frýdlant attack 1.12 + Slovan Rosice defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Slovan Rosice scores more
61%
level
21%
Frýdlant scores more
18%

Slovan Rosice at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Slovan Rosice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
E. Sedlacek
12'
A. Varadi
37'
E. Sedlacek
46'
M. Indra← M. Indra
48'
A. Varadi
54'
T. Selinger
55'
B. Velicka
66'
M. Hladik← M. Hladik
66'
A. Varadi← V. Hajnos
73'
A. Fila
75'
D. Prerovsky← D. Prerovsky
75'
T. Selinger← T. Dobrovodsky
75'
K. Kulik← K. Kulik
77'
K. Kulik
84'
M. Krsak← M. Krsak
84'
J. Krejci← J. Krejci
89'
T. Papik← T. Papik
90'
K. Kulik

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovan Rosice vs Frýdlant

Slovan Rosice beat Frýdlant 5-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on August 13, 2022.

Goals: E. Sedlacek (3', 37'), A. Varadi (48'), T. Selinger (54'), A. Fila (73'), K. Kulik (90').

The match was played at Hřiště FC Slovan in Rosice.