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Frýdlant vs Slovan Rosice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Frýdlant
Frýdlant
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Slovan Rosice
Slovan Rosice
V. Dedek 90+4'
D. Prerovsky 33'
4/18/20233. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 19Stadion 1. BFK Frýdlant

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Frýdlant33%
×Draw24%
Slovan Rosice43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frýdlant
1.37
Slovan Rosice
1.60

Slovan Rosice creates 17% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 66 away

creates per match

Frýdlant
1.50
Slovan Rosice
1.27

allows per match

Frýdlant
1.94
Slovan Rosice
1.24

finishing

Frýdlant+0.00on par
Slovan Rosice+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frýdlant ↓

Slovan Rosice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Frýdlant or draw
57%
Frýdlant or Slovan Rosice
76%
Draw or Slovan Rosice
67%

Winning margin

Frýdlant wins by 2+
15%
Slovan Rosice wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Frýdlant 1+ goals
75%
Frýdlant 2+ goals
40%
Frýdlant 3+ goals
16%
Slovan Rosice 1+ goals
80%
Slovan Rosice 2+ goals
47%
Slovan Rosice 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Frýdlant (draw refunded)
43%
Slovan Rosice (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frýdlant at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

Slovan Rosice away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.24 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frýdlant attack 1.50 + Slovan Rosice defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.37

Slovan Rosice attack 1.27 + Frýdlant defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Frýdlant scores more
33%
level
24%
Slovan Rosice scores more
43%

Slovan Rosice at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Slovan Rosice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
P. Literak
33'
D. Prerovsky
38'
M. Hladik
41'
V. Hajnos
44'
J. Juricek
59'
E. Sedlacek← E. Sedlacek
67'
R. Buchta← J. Kolacny
67'
D. Prerovsky← A. Fila
68'
D. Kulhanek← D. Kulhanek
68'
A. Varadi← A. Varadi
74'
P. Literak← J. Svatonsky
85'
S. Prikryl
85'
E. Sedlacek
85'
D. Kotasek← D. Kotasek
85'
F. Matula← F. Matula
89'
M. Milar← M. Milar
90'
J. Cerny
90+2'
R. Safner
90+3'
T. Zezula
90+4'
V. Dedek

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Frýdlant 1–1 Slovan Rosice

Frýdlant and Slovan Rosice drew 1-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on April 18, 2023.

Goals: D. Prerovsky (33'), V. Dedek (90+4').

The match was played at Stadion 1. BFK Frýdlant in Frýdlant nad Ostravicí.