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Slovan Rosice vs Dolní Benešov — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Slovan Rosice
Slovan Rosice
FT
2 – 0
Dolní Benešov
Dolní Benešov
A. Fila 83'
T. Dobrovodsky 72'
9/9/20203. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 16Hřiště FC Slovan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Slovan Rosice64%
×Draw20%
Dolní Benešov16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Rosice
2.17
Dolní Benešov
0.97

Slovan Rosice creates 124% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 26 away

creates per match

Slovan Rosice
1.60
Dolní Benešov
1.08

allows per match

Slovan Rosice
0.85
Dolní Benešov
2.73

finishing

Slovan Rosice+0.00on par
Dolní Benešov+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Rosice ↓

Dolní Benešov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Slovan Rosice or draw
84%
Slovan Rosice or Dolní Benešov
80%
Draw or Dolní Benešov
36%

Winning margin

Slovan Rosice wins by 2+
41%
Dolní Benešov wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Slovan Rosice 1+ goals
89%
Slovan Rosice 2+ goals
64%
Slovan Rosice 3+ goals
36%
Dolní Benešov 1+ goals
62%
Dolní Benešov 2+ goals
25%
Dolní Benešov 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Slovan Rosice (draw refunded)
80%
Dolní Benešov (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Rosice at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.85 · 68 matches

Dolní Benešov away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.73 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Rosice attack 1.60 + Dolní Benešov defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.17

Dolní Benešov attack 1.08 + Slovan Rosice defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Slovan Rosice scores more
64%
level
20%
Dolní Benešov scores more
16%

Slovan Rosice at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Slovan Rosice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
28'
M. Pecuch
43'
A. Karcmar
45'
P. Malata
62'
J. Vitamvas← M. Minarcik
63'
T. Moravec
64'
T. Selinger
65'
A. Fila← A. Fila
70'
M. Krejci
72'
T. Dobrovodsky
74'
T. Praks← T. Praks
83'
A. Fila

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Slovan Rosice 2–0 Dolní Benešov

Slovan Rosice beat Dolní Benešov 2-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on September 9, 2020.

Goals: T. Dobrovodsky (72'), A. Fila (83').

The match was played at Hřiště FC Slovan in Rosice.