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Dolní Benešov vs Slovan Rosice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Dolní Benešov
Dolní Benešov
CANC
15:30
Slovan Rosice
Slovan Rosice
6/20/20213. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 33Stadion FC MSA Dolní Benešov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Dolní Benešov27%
×Draw27%
Slovan Rosice47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dolní Benešov
1.02
Slovan Rosice
1.44

Slovan Rosice creates 41% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 66 away

creates per match

Dolní Benešov
0.80
Slovan Rosice
1.27

allows per match

Dolní Benešov
1.60
Slovan Rosice
1.24

finishing

Dolní Benešov+0.00on par
Slovan Rosice+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dolní Benešov ↓

Slovan Rosice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dolní Benešov or draw
53%
Dolní Benešov or Slovan Rosice
73%
Draw or Slovan Rosice
73%

Winning margin

Dolní Benešov wins by 2+
10%
Slovan Rosice wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Dolní Benešov 1+ goals
64%
Dolní Benešov 2+ goals
27%
Dolní Benešov 3+ goals
8%
Slovan Rosice 1+ goals
76%
Slovan Rosice 2+ goals
42%
Slovan Rosice 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Dolní Benešov (draw refunded)
36%
Slovan Rosice (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dolní Benešov at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

Slovan Rosice away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.24 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dolní Benešov attack 0.80 + Slovan Rosice defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.02

Slovan Rosice attack 1.27 + Dolní Benešov defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dolní Benešov scores more
27%
level
27%
Slovan Rosice scores more
47%

Slovan Rosice at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Slovan Rosice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dolní Benešov host Slovan Rosice

June 20, 2021: Dolní Benešov take on Slovan Rosice in 3. liga - MSFL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Dolní Benešov host Slovan Rosice at Stadion FC MSA Dolní Benešov.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.