Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Slovan Ljubljana vs Ilirija — 2. SNL 2019

Slovan Ljubljana
Slovan Ljubljana
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Ilirija
Ilirija
Unknown 43', 17'
Unknown 72'
4/8/20262. SNL2. SNL · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Slovan Ljubljana37%
×Draw26%
Ilirija37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Ljubljana
1.30
Ilirija
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 75 away

creates per match

Slovan Ljubljana
1.20
Ilirija
1.17

allows per match

Slovan Ljubljana
1.43
Ilirija
1.40

finishing

Slovan Ljubljana+0.00on par
Ilirija+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Ljubljana ↓

Ilirija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Slovan Ljubljana or draw
63%
Slovan Ljubljana or Ilirija
74%
Draw or Ilirija
63%

Winning margin

Slovan Ljubljana wins by 2+
16%
Ilirija wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Slovan Ljubljana 1+ goals
73%
Slovan Ljubljana 2+ goals
37%
Slovan Ljubljana 3+ goals
14%
Ilirija 1+ goals
73%
Ilirija 2+ goals
37%
Ilirija 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Slovan Ljubljana (draw refunded)
50%
Ilirija (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Ljubljana at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

Ilirija away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.40 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Ljubljana attack 1.20 + Ilirija defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.30

Ilirija attack 1.17 + Slovan Ljubljana defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Slovan Ljubljana scores more
37%
level
26%
Ilirija scores more
37%

Slovan Ljubljana at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Slovan Ljubljana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
43'
72'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovan Ljubljana vs Ilirija

Slovan Ljubljana beat Ilirija 2-1 in 2. SNL on April 8, 2026.

Goals: ? (17', 43', 72').