Ilirija 0–0 Slovan Ljubljana: Result & Stats

Ilirija

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Slovan Ljubljana

10/19/2024

2. SNL · Round 11Športni park Ilirija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ilirija43%

×Draw26%

Slovan Ljubljana31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IlirijaExpected goals in this matchSlovan Ljubljana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.21

Ilirija

1.46

Slovan Ljubljana

1.21

Ilirija creates 21% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 30 away

1.32

creates per match

1.00

1.43

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Ilirija

1.32

Slovan Ljubljana

1.00

allows per match

Ilirija

1.43

Slovan Ljubljana

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ilirija+0.00on par

Slovan Ljubljana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilirija ↓

Slovan Ljubljana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ilirija or draw

69%

Ilirija or Slovan Ljubljana

74%

Draw or Slovan Ljubljana

57%

Winning margin

Ilirija wins by 2+

21%

Slovan Ljubljana wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ilirija 1+ goals

77%

Ilirija 2+ goals

43%

Ilirija 3+ goals

18%

Slovan Ljubljana 1+ goals

70%

Slovan Ljubljana 2+ goals

34%

Slovan Ljubljana 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ilirija (draw refunded)

58%

Slovan Ljubljana (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilirija at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.43 · 75 matches

Slovan Ljubljana away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilirija attack 1.32 + Slovan Ljubljana defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.46

Slovan Ljubljana attack 1.00 + Ilirija defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ilirija scores more

43%

level

26%

Slovan Ljubljana scores more

31%

Ilirija at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ilirija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

G. Gibson← Ž. Korošec

53'

A. Dodig← H. Duraković

53'

D. Džajić← A. Puškar

76'

L. Škof← F. Lukežič

76'

G. Gršič← T. Pantelić

76'

J. Vidović← A. Šakanović

83'

D. Dzajic

83'

D. Dzajic

89'

J. Haznadar← T. Maksimović

Ilirija

Slovan

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Kondić

46'▲G. Gibson←▼Ž. Korošec

76'▲L. Škof←▼F. Lukežič

Ilirija substitutes

GibsonŠkofGutićCerkPečjakStojinovićLepošaStojnićMalnar

Manager: D. Omeragić

53'▲A. Dodig←▼H. Duraković

53'▲D. Džajić←▼A. Puškar

76'▲G. Gršič←▼T. Pantelić

76'▲J. Vidović←▼A. Šakanović

89'▲J. Haznadar←▼T. Maksimović

Slovan Ljubljana substitutes

DodigDžajićGršičVidovićHaznadarRistićGawishPopovičRepnik