Slovan Ljubljana 1–0 Bilje: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Slovan Ljubljana

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bilje

A. Ristić 69'

11/9/2024

2. SNL · Round 14Športni park Kodeljevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Slovan Ljubljana42%

×Draw25%

Bilje33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovan LjubljanaExpected goals in this matchBilje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.33

Slovan Ljubljana

1.52

Bilje

1.33

Slovan Ljubljana creates 14% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 95 away

1.20

creates per match

1.24

1.43

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Slovan Ljubljana

1.20

Bilje

1.24

allows per match

Slovan Ljubljana

1.43

Bilje

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovan Ljubljana+0.00on par

Bilje+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Ljubljana ↓

Bilje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Slovan Ljubljana or draw

67%

Slovan Ljubljana or Bilje

75%

Draw or Bilje

58%

Winning margin

Slovan Ljubljana wins by 2+

21%

Bilje wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Slovan Ljubljana 1+ goals

78%

Slovan Ljubljana 2+ goals

45%

Slovan Ljubljana 3+ goals

20%

Bilje 1+ goals

74%

Bilje 2+ goals

38%

Bilje 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Slovan Ljubljana (draw refunded)

56%

Bilje (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Ljubljana at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

Bilje away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.85 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Ljubljana attack 1.20 + Bilje defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.52

Bilje attack 1.24 + Slovan Ljubljana defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Slovan Ljubljana scores more

42%

level

25%

Bilje scores more

33%

Slovan Ljubljana at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Slovan Ljubljana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

A. Puškar← A. Šakanović

63'

M. Gomizelj← G. Gaberšek Rotovnik

69'

A. Ristić

73'

E. Kostić← N. Doplihar

78'

A. Dodig← H. Duraković

87'

D. Popovič← T. Maksimović

87'

J. Haznadar← A. Ristić

88'

K. Kozar← K. Hadžiavdić

88'

T. Koron← M. Slavec

Slovan

Bilje

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: D. Omeragić

59'▲A. Puškar←▼A. Šakanović

78'▲A. Dodig←▼H. Duraković

87'▲D. Popovič←▼T. Maksimović

87'▲J. Haznadar←▼A. Ristić

Slovan Ljubljana substitutes

PuškarDodigPopovičHaznadarGawishGršičMagisterCverleBizjak

Manager: Ž. Pahor

63'▲M. Gomizelj←▼G. Gaberšek Rotovnik

73'▲E. Kostić←▼N. Doplihar

88'▲K. Kozar←▼K. Hadžiavdić

88'▲T. Koron←▼M. Slavec

Bilje substitutes

GomizeljKostićKozarKoronDraščekBjelkićKovačevićMajićKavčič