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Bilje vs Slovan Ljubljana — 2. SNL 2019

Bilje
Bilje
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Slovan Ljubljana
Slovan Ljubljana
A. Ristic 14'
2/28/20262. SNL2. SNL · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bilje45%
×Draw26%
Slovan Ljubljana29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bilje
1.50
Slovan Ljubljana
1.14

Bilje creates 32% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 30 away

creates per match

Bilje
1.41
Slovan Ljubljana
1.00

allows per match

Bilje
1.28
Slovan Ljubljana
1.60

finishing

Bilje+0.00on par
Slovan Ljubljana+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bilje ↓

Slovan Ljubljana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Bilje or draw
71%
Bilje or Slovan Ljubljana
74%
Draw or Slovan Ljubljana
55%

Winning margin

Bilje wins by 2+
23%
Slovan Ljubljana wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bilje 1+ goals
78%
Bilje 2+ goals
44%
Bilje 3+ goals
19%
Slovan Ljubljana 1+ goals
68%
Slovan Ljubljana 2+ goals
32%
Slovan Ljubljana 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bilje (draw refunded)
61%
Slovan Ljubljana (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bilje at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.28 · 95 matches

Slovan Ljubljana away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bilje attack 1.41 + Slovan Ljubljana defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Slovan Ljubljana attack 1.00 + Bilje defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bilje scores more
45%
level
26%
Slovan Ljubljana scores more
29%

Bilje at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bilje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
A. Ristic
Bilje
Slovan
Ž. Pahor
Manager: Ž. Pahor
L. Žinko
Manager: L. Žinko

Match Recap: Bilje vs Slovan Ljubljana

Slovan Ljubljana beat Bilje 1-0 in 2. SNL on February 28, 2026.

Goals: A. Ristic (14').